Fairfax County chairman Gerry Connolly won his new position in the U.S. Congress last week on Nov. 4, but two of his colleagues on the Board of Supervisors have been preparing for his departure for months.

Braddock District Supervisor Sharon Bulova (D) and Springfield District Supervisor Patrick Herrity (R) made little secret of their interest in chairman’s position this fall, especially since Connolly was the favorite to take Virginia’s 11th Congressional District.

Even before Connolly made his election night victory speech this month, Bulova shared plans for her county chairman campaign kick off Nov. 12.

Herrity, who is Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer of Arrowhead Global Solutions, a local technology company, has been shaking hands at events like the Vienna Fourth of July festival and others miles outside his district for months. He officially announced his candidacy Nov. 13.

The countywide race to succeed Connolly is likely to be short and fast. The chairman will step down in early January and county officials expect a special election to replace him will occur in early February, about one month later. The new chairman would serve out the rest of Connolly’s term and has the chance to stand re-election in 2011.

BOTH Bulova and Herrity said the economic downturn and Fairfax County’s budget shortfall would be their top priorities as chairman.

If the real estate tax rate is kept at the same level, Fairfax is facing a projected $500 million shortfall in the county’s $3.4 billion general fund during next fiscal year. Fairfax has already had to wrestle with a $65 million budget shortfall in the current fiscal year, which started July 1. The county executive required county agencies to make mid-year cuts.

If the supervisors had to wrestle with just a $400 million budget shortfall next year, they would be looking at cutting roughly 12 percent of Fairfax’s total operating budget. According to county staff, $400 million is equivalent to what the county sets aside for public works, courts, community development, parks and recreation, libraries, administrative and support services, county transit and Metro funding combined.

Budget staff predicts that the tight fiscal situation would continue beyond next year and that the county could take several budget cycles to recover from the current downturn.

Bulova, 60, who has sat on the board since 1987, said she is the most qualified person to steer the county through tough financial times. She has served as the supervisors’ budget committee chairman for all but four of the past 20 years. Former county chairman Tom Davis headed the committee in the early 1990s.
Bulova said she played a pivotal role in guiding the county out of its last fiscal crisis in the mid-1990s.

"I was the budget chairman when we took action to address the last downturn and we emerged from that recession in better shape than we had been in when the downturn began," she said.

The county found new and better ways to partner with the non-profit and faith communities to deliver services. As a result of the last recession, the supervisors also created a revenue stabilization fund, which the county is tapping right now, to provide "rainy day" money for the county if it ever faced a mid-year budget shortfall, she said.

"Looking ahead, I want to find those same opportunities to pull out of this current recession in a sound and improved manner," said Bulova.

As chairman, Bulova wants to focus on "getting us back on our fiscal feet so we can emerge from the recession better than ever."

STILL, Herrity, 48, said it might be time for a new perspective and blames Bulova, in part, for the county’s current financial crisis.

"Basically, she was the budget chair that got us into a lot of this mess. I don’t think the county can afford three more years of the same," he said.

Fairfax should have been better prepared for an economic downturn, particularly the slowing down of the real estate market, said Herrity, who joined the board in January. While Herrity is in his first year on the county board, he could bring name recognition to the race. His father, Jack Herrity, served 16 years on the Board of Supervisors, including 12 years as chairman.

Residents’ home values have more than doubled, resulting in significantly higher taxes and more revenue for county government. Supervisors should have been more conservative about spending the additional money and adding new county programs, said Herrity.

The Springfield District supervisor also implied that Bulova and Connolly had not focused new revenue on the county’s most critical needs. As the local economy boomed, traffic got worse and the locality, which is looking at cutting public safety funding, saw a spike in crime this year, he said.

In his short time on the board, the Springfield supervisor has also been an advocate for more community involvement in Fairfax’s budget process and supported the board’s decision to hold community dialogues about county budget priorities this fall.

"[In recent years], we haven’t had outside input into the budget process other than public hearings," said Herrity.

BULOVA said she, Connolly and the other veterans on the board couldn’t be blamed for the county’s current financial problems.

"This is a worldwide economic downturn and Fairfax County is affected by it. I have done a very good job of steering the county through tough fiscal times before and I will again. Tom Davis was chairman of the board the last time we were affected by a recession and it certainly wasn’t Tom’s fault," she said.

Many of Bulova’s Democratic colleagues have already expressed support for her and said her experience as budget chairman would be a valuable asset.

"The main reason I am backing Sharon is we need someone who understands the budget backwards and forwards. There will be tough decisions and we need someone understands the ramifications of those tough decisions," said Supervisor Jeff McKay (D-Lee).

Others, mostly Republicans, have already come out for Herrity.

"Sharon was chairman of the budget committee last year when they put off a lot of their decisions. They didn’t do what they might have done because Gerry was running for Congress. They didn’t make any of the tough decisions," said Davis.

HERRITY could face an uphill battle getting elected countywide as a Republican.

Fairfax has not had a Republican chairman since Davis left the post 13 years ago, and all but two of the nine district supervisors are Democrats. Michael Frey (Sully) is the only other Republican on the board.

The Nov. 4 election also wasn’t encouraging. Sixty percent of Fairfax County voters chose President-elect Barack Obama, giving the Democrat over a 100,000-ballot victory over Republican John McCain in the locality.

Bulova also has a track record of getting elected as a Democrat in one of the county’s more moderate-to-conservative magisterial districts, said Scott Surovell, head of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee.

"Sharon has a long history of getting things done and the Braddock District voters have confirmed that five times now. She has held that seat for 21 years, which says a lot about her ability," said Surovell.

But Davis pointed out that his successor, Kate Hanley, won the county chairman seat in a similar, unfavorable climate for the Democrats in 1995.

Davis, who was then chairman, was one of over 50 Republicans to win new seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994. His move to Congress triggered a special election for county chairman in an era when Republicans had the advantage, but Hanley, a Democrat, still won the countywide seat.

"This is different set of issues, different turnout model and different people from the [Nov. 4] election," he said.

In some ways, the Democratic blow out on Nov. 4 could help Herrity, according to Jim Hyland, head of the Fairfax County Republican Committee.

"I have no doubts that Republicans will be highly motivated given that election," he said.