"We seem to be in the right ballpark, even if we don't know who's on first or second base, yet," said Park and Planning Commissioner John Robinson.
Robinson was speaking at the commission's final worksession on the County's Annual Growth Policy (AGP).
The AGP governs the administration of the county’s Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance, adopted in 1973. The growth policy is designed to limit new development to places with adequate infrastructure – essentially schools and roads.
The AGP, adopted in 1986, was designed to measure if adequate services were available. However, complex mathematical formulas and sliding definitions of “adequate” led to new growth even in areas that had over-crowded schools and packed roads.
While calculations say that there is capacity in the county’s roads and schools, residents’ experiences with persistent traffic and ubiquitous portable classrooms (trailers) have run counter to the numbers.
As a result, the County Council charged the Planning Commission with conducting a "top-to-bottom" review of the AGP.
The commission has reached the conclusion that although the county does not have adequate capacity to support its current residents, some growth is necessary to allow for a vibrant economy.
"I think what the AGP is about is how do we manage the traffic and the school enrollment in a generally healthy economy," said commission chair Derick Berlage.
The planning commission has proposed a growth cap, coupled with impact taxes. The idea is that the cap will slow the rate of new development and the taxes will generate funds to build more infrastructure.
The plan also calls for allocating the limited number of building permits to different areas of the county.
"If there is an Achilles heel to this, it is what will be the standards the council will use to allocate capacity to the different areas," Berlage said.
The commission has proposed a growth rate of one percent of the current level of development.
"We need to do a better job of justifying that one percent figure,” Berlage said.
"The one percent has taken on a sort of mystical significance," said Commission Vice-Chair Wendy Perdue.
The one percent figure was based on the idea that if growth were allowed to occur at its natural rate, it would be approximately 1.3-1.4 percent, and the commission wanted to step back from that.
The County Council would set the growth rate and could adjust it up or down to account for new infrastructure having been built.