John Fitzgerald, a Realtor with Better Homes Realty in McLean, has a very grim view of Northern Virginia's real estate future.
"There are people out there who are paying over $400,000 for townhouses in Fair Oaks," he said. Among Fitzgerald's most somber predictions is that "10 years from now, we'll be like San Francisco in terms of real estate prices."
ACCORDING TO RECENTLY released census data, the median annual household income in Fairfax County of $81,050 is the highest in the region. But a family on that income would have a hard time finding a home in Fairfax County, said Fitzgerald. Every year, he is approached by people on a similar income trying to find a livable home.
"They say, 'I'm going to compromise, I'm going to compromise,'" he said. "They end up saying, 'To heck with this,' so I say, 'Call Betty in the Montclair office.'"
The Better Homes Realty Office in Montclair in southern Prince William County is by far the firm's busiest office, said Fitzgerald. "They've got real houses that real people can afford," he said.
Fitzgerald sees only two ways to bring the burning real estate market under control. The first is to impose a 30-year fixed mortgage rate which will limit appreciation of homes. The second is "if Saddam Hussein and Osama Bin Laden were to surrender and volunteer to have their heads cut off by Condoleeza Rice," he said.
Such an end to the "war on terrorism" would reduce the number of new defense-related jobs in the region. These new jobs are a major factor in the out-of-control real estate market.
"The 'Now Hiring' banner on the Northrop Grumman building on Dolley Madison says it all," he said.
FIGURES FROM the Northern Virginia Association of Realtors show that the median price of a single-family home is now $295,000 and the average price $346,894 — up from $272,900 and $332,724, respectively last year. There are also 10.9 percent fewer active listings for single-family homes than this time last year, which indicates that homes are being sold faster. The pressure on condos and co-ops is even greater with the number of active listings down 15.1 percent from last year.
"We're selling 88 percent of available listings," said Anthony Carr, of NVAR. "You're in a seller's market when you're selling 25 percent of available listings."
Current listings will not ensure more than two months worth of housing, Carr added.
"We need the government to allow increased density so our builders can get more homes up," he said. "The economy is still growing in this area."
With road projects recently taken off the six-year plan by the state Department of Transportation, "you're guaranteeing an increase in the price of homes and an increase in traffic," he said. "You do need to have a balance. To keep this going at a sustained level is not healthy."
COUNTY PROGRAMS are in place for first-time homebuyers who otherwise would not be able to afford to live in Fairfax. The Department of Housing and Community Development's first-time homebuyers program has sold 800 homes since its inception in 1993, said Barbara Silberzahn, chief of homeownership services at the department of housing.
Although contracts are still written by developers, pricing is fixed under the Affordable Dwelling Unit ordinance.
Eligible families earn a maximum of 70 percent of the area's median income. There are also priorities for families who live or work in Fairfax County or who have a dependent child under the age of 18.
When a property becomes available, a lottery system is used to select among all eligible families. The lottery lists are then turned over to the developers to begin working with the family.
"It's very competitive," said Silberzahn, who noted that 1,700 families are currently on the waiting list to participate in the program. "It's the only way people can afford a home for a lot of people in this county."