By 2010, transit commuters in the Washington area will have a much wider range of transit options to choose from if an ambitious Metro plan is carried out.
Northern Virginia commuters would see an extension of Metro out to Dulles airport, rapid bus service down Route 1 from Huntington Station to Fort Belvoir, a two-pronged light rail route that would connect Crystal City to the Pentagon and the Pentagon to Bailey's Crossroads. The agency would also undertake an environmental study on extending the Orange Line along I-66.
The expansion plans, however, are not Metro's first priority, according to the plan. That honor belongs to replacing aging buses and rail cars, upgrading elevators and escalators, maintaining tracks and improving technology for the system.
"These projects would be extremely helpful in getting people off the roads," said Steven Taub, a Metro spokesman. "Getting more rail cars is extremely important to us," he added, in light of the projected increase in ridership in the next decade.
THE ENTIRE PROGRAM is estimated to cost around $12.2 billion but that figure is probably too low, said Supervisor Dana Kauffman (D-Lee), the voting member from Fairfax County on the Metro board. For instance, the Metro plan lists all the transit expansion in Northern Virginia as costing $2 billion. But extending rail out to Dulles Airport alone could cost over $3 billion.
"That's not an actual cost-to-construct figure," said Kauffman of the listed figure. "We're just using that to try to start us down the path to a rational capital plan."
Although the target completion date for the Dulles transit project is 2010, it might take several years more to complete, added Kauffman. This means that the full $3 billion cost would not all have to be spent by 2010.
"I'm trying to look at it as a realist," he said.
Funding for the program would be split between local, state and federal governments. Although it is unclear what share of the costs each level of government would have to bear, Kauffman said it is unlikely the federal government will pay more than half.
"We have to have some way to pony up the county's money," he said. "Our hope is to be able to get the capital dollars through the sales tax referendum."
But November's referendum asking voters to raise the regional sales tax by a half cent for transportation improvements would only generate $250 million for Metro improvements, about 8 percent of the $3.3 billion in improvements identified as essential in the Metro plan.
"It's a drop in the bucket," said Stewart Schwartz, the president of the Coalition for Smarter Growth, which opposes the sales tax referendum.
"He's right in terms of it being a drop in the bucket but right now it's the only thing dripping into the bucket and he hasn't provided an alternative," said Kauffman.
THE 2010 program represents the first time Metro has seriously considered rapid bus transit and light rail.
"It's looking at new iterations of transit," said Kauffman, who added that the agency has previously preferred to focus on commuter bus and heavy rail transit.
Local smart growth advocates also praised the plan as a "big start."
"There are some light bulbs going on at Metro," said Paul Hughes, the president of the Fairfax Coalition for Smarter Growth.
"I think it's some recognition and some legitimizing of the fact that light rail is really the most cost-effective option for many of these corridors."
Hughes, a long-time light rail advocate, added that the plan did not go far enough in providing light rail service.
"We want to see that thing go from Bailey's all the way out to Tysons, all the way out Route 7," he said.
Bob Chase, the executive director of the Northern Virginia Transportation Alliance, was skeptical of the plan.
"By how much does this reduce traffic congestion?" he asked. "What we don't know is what's the best way to spend $12 billion."
A realistic transportation plan that looked at reducing congestion by improving both transit and roads would probably be more successful than separate plans for roads and transit, he said.
"Until we're able to get away from the road versus rail debate and get down to what do we need to do, it's going to be very difficult to get on top of this issue."