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Wednesday, November 1, 2023

A slight shift in the vote in Fairfax County's midterm elections on Nov. 7 could determine which party controls Virginia and what legislation is passed. The potential ramifications could be far-reaching, positioning the 2024 election on abortion and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin's (R) national prospects.

The Virginia Democratic Party lost its 2019 election trifecta in the gubernatorial and state legislative elections in 2021. A state government trifecta occurs when one political party holds majorities in the governor's office and the state legislature's two chambers, the House and the Senate. Following the November 2021 election, the Republican Party controls the office of the governor, as well as the House of Delegates.

If Virginia Republicans win both chambers of the General Assembly on Nov. 8, 2023, by retaining or increasing their slim majority in the state House and gaining the Senate, it will be a Republican trifecta. The trifecta would allow Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) to push through his conservative agenda, including his 15-week abortion ban, which the Democratic-controlled Senate rejected. Despite a Republican-controlled Virginia House of Delegates since January 2022, a Democratic-controlled Virginia Senate has limited the governor's ability to pass much of his agenda.

What could make this November's midterm elections a wild card is that all 100 seats in the GOP-controlled Virginia House of Delegates and the 40 Senate seats are up for grabs under new, untested district maps that were purposefully drawn without regard for where legislators lived. The final maps paired or even tripled incumbents in the same districts. Legislators retired, and seats became available, making predictions more difficult and setting the stage many for first time legislators.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) was the first Republican in Virginia's gubernatorial election to win a statewide election since 2009. Youngkin won by the narrowest margin in a Virginia gubernatorial election since 1989, with 50.6 percent of the vote to Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe's 48.6 percent. It was also the first time that a Virginia statewide candidate did not win in one of the Northern Virginia counties of Loudoun, Prince William, or Fairfax, or one of their independent cities.

The Fairfax County School Board will have record turnover, and is not immune from the culture battleground seen around the country. There is an unexpected twist in the plot for the Franconia school board seat.

Candidates were asked to provide a short bio and share a story of their interaction with a voter that led them to a commitment to take action, with a tight word limit. Candidate responses are printed in the order they appear on the ballot.

More than 64,000 voters have already voted, and more than 650,000 active voters have not voted. Early voting continues through Saturday, Nov. 4. Election Day is Nov. 7, voters must vote at their assigned polling place, and all polling places will be open from 6 a.m. - 7 p.m.

For information on how and where to vote, including voting early, see https://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/elections/

Don’t miss this week’s Candidate Connection featuring candidates for General Assembly. Here are links to previous week’s Candidate Connection: