UVA's Weldon-Cooper Center recently came out with its new population projection for 2040 (which isn't that far away!).
The top lines project Virginia passing New Jersey and Michigan in population, but the local numbers are more interesting.
Northern Virginia counties are going to see some major increases. Population will continue to shift to Northern Virginia; 35 percent of Virginia's population will be in Northern Virginia compared with 29.6 percent in 2010.
Redevelopment and Planning
These numbers only reinforce the need to continue moving along the U.S. 1 Embark process. Population is coming to Northern Virginia and we need to plan for it now as different jurisdictions continue to compete for these new families.
Building up instead of building out is a better way to go in terms of infrastructure, energy consumption, and quality of life. Leaders in the U.S. 1 Corridor in Fairfax and Prince William counties should see this as major redevelopment opportunity to improve our communities.
It also only underscores the pressure that Northern Virginia's existing government infrastructure will feel as numbers continue to grow. We will need new transit, schools, and parks as we plan for this influx of people.
Planning for these kinds of populations shifts takes decades which is why we need to lay the groundwork today.
Politics
There are also political consequences in these population increases. Although I did not use the 2010 numbers, if you use the 2010 population used to conduct the last redistricting, this would mean a net pickup of 5.1 delegates and two senators for Northern Virginia.
Although, it is a little harder to calculate because of the activity in other states, it is also pretty apparent that Virginia will likely pickup 1-2 Congressional seats and at least one of them will be in Northern Virginia.
I did not do all of the math, but it is fairly apparent that nearly 70 percent of the state's population will be in the I-95/I-64, NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads Corridor. Our regions need to continue to work together to look for common ground as we cope with these challenges.
It is an honor to serve as your state senator. Please email me at scott@scottsurovell.org if you have any feedback.